Summary:
Markets softened during the week as Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year falling -11 basis points to 4.10%, while major U.S. equity indices posted week-to-date losses of roughly -1.3% to -1.9%. Economic data was mixed, as January payroll growth exceeded expectations and unemployment edged lower, but retail sales stalled, mortgage applications declined for a third straight week, and trade price inflation remained modest. Investors are now pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning in June, with added focus on upcoming CPI data and the approaching transition in Fed leadership. Commodities broadly struggled, led by sharp declines in silver and Bitcoin, underscoring continued dispersion in 2026 as crude oil and gold remain resilient despite a risk-off tone.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 4.10% (as of February 12, 2026)
- Week-to-date Movement: -11bps (from 4.21% on February 6, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 6,939.03 → 6,832.76 (-1.38% WTD)
- DJIA: 50,115.67 → 49,451.88 (-1.32% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,031.21 → 22,597.15 (-1.88% WTD)
Notable Market Events
- Macroeconomic Data: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, comfortably above the +55,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, beating expectations of 4.4%. Job gains were led by health care, which added +82,000 positions, followed by social assistance with +42,000 and construction with +33,000. Meanwhile, retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December, weighed down by adverse weather, tariff impacts, and persistently elevated inflation. Import prices increased +0.1% month over month, in line with estimates, while export prices also rose +0.1%, falling short of the +0.3% consensus. Mortgage applications declined for a third consecutive week, slipping -0.3%.
- Economic Policy: As investors digest mixed signals across both labor market and retail data, markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year‑end, with the first expected at the June meeting. With Jerome Powell’s term concluding in May, the nomination of Kevin Warsh has renewed focus on data dependence and broader discussions around potential dollar debasement. Attention now turns to the inflation outlook, with CPI data set to be released pre‑market on Friday.
- Business: Apple (NYSE: AAPL) shares fell -5% on Thursday after the company identified software, accuracy, and query‑processing issues with its virtual assistant, Siri. Management noted that some planned features will be delayed until future iOS updates. Separately, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square disclosed a 10% stake, valued at roughly $2 billion, in Meta Platforms (NYSE: META) at the firm’s annual meeting. Shares of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) rose more than 2% after the company reported quarterly earnings that exceeded Street expectations. In the private markets, Anthropic completed a $30 billion funding round at a $380 billion valuation, with plans to invest in expanding its enterprise‑grade products and models while also allowing employees to sell shares at the same valuation as the latest round.
- Markets: Commodities endured a challenging week, with broad-based weakness across key assets. The U.S. dollar and gold each declined roughly -75 basis points, while crude oil fell -1.68%. Silver underperformed further, dropping nearly -3.30%. Bitcoin also came under pressure, sliding -6.37%. Despite the recent pullback, commodities have exhibited significant dispersion in 2026. Bitcoin is down more than -25% year-to-date, while crude oil and gold have continued to post strong gains.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 2/12/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
Disclosures
OpenArc Corporate Advisory, LLC, (“OpenArc”) is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This material is presented for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an attempt to sell or solicit any products or services of OpenArc nor should it be construed as legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. Past performance of model performance shown is no guarantee of future results. The model portfolio performance does not reflect actual trading or any advisory, management, or transaction fees, all of which could result in substantially lower results. This does not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors may have had on decision making. You cannot invest directly in an index.
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